Forecasting the volatility of Nikkei 225 futures

Forecasting the Volatility of Nikkei 225 Futures ∗

For forecasting volatility of futures returns, the paper proposes an indirect method based on the relationship between futures and the underlying asset for the returns and time-varying volatility. For volatility forecasting, the paper considers the stochastic volatility model with asymmetry and long memory, using high frequency data for the underlying asset. Empirical results for Nikkei 225 fut...

Realized Volatility, Covariance and Hedging Coefficient of the Nikkei-225 Futures with Micro-Market Noise

For the estimation problem of the realized volatility, covariance and hedging coefficient by using high frequency data with possibly micro-market noises, we use the Separating Information Maximum Likelihood (SIML) method, which was recently developed by Kunitomo and Sato (2008a,b). By analyzing the Nikkei 225 futures and spot index markets, we have found that the estimates of realized volatilit...

Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday data

We use the information in intraday data to forecast the volatility of crude oil at a horizon of 1 to 66 days using a variety of models relying on the decomposition of realized variance in its positive or negative (semivariances) part and its continuous or discontinuous part (jumps). We show the importance of these decompositions in predictive regressions using a number of specifications. Nevert...

Prediction of the Movement of Nikkei 225 Index Based on Japanese Yen-usd Currency Price

Forecasting Corn Futures Volatility in the Presence of Long Memory, Seasonality and Structural Change

Xiaoyang Wang ([email protected]) is a Graduate Research Assistant with the Office of Futures and Options Research in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics in the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Philip Garcia is the T.A. Hieronymus Distinguished Chair in Futures Markets and Director, Office of Futures and Options Research in the University of Illinois at UrbanaCha...